Posts in Market Trends
by The KCM Crew on November 26, 2013
The big question for homebuyers is when interest rates will begin to rise to the 5% mark. The effect of a rise in mortgage rates could be a dramatic increase in the monthly mortgage payment when purchasing a home. In an article last week, HousingWire quoted two different sources regarding this issue.
Most experts are projecting that rates will rise when the Fed decides to taper the purchase of bonds which has acted as a stimulus to the housing market by keeping long term mortgage rates at historic lows.
In the article, Sterne Agee’s managing director and chief economist Lindsey Piegza pointed out:
"Federal Reserve officials said they might reduce their monthly bond buying program from $85 billion 'in coming months' as the economy continues to improve."
The article also quotes Frank Nothaft, chief economist with Freddie Mac:
“By the end of 2014, rates will probably approach and perhaps touch 5%. A reason we see the uptick in rates is that I do think some point the Federal Reserve will start to taper and scale back its very active purchase on long-term Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities.”
Rates will hit 5% sometime in 2014. It might be better to buy sooner rather than later.
Now is the time to talk with your real estate professional!
We can help ... meet our agents here.
We agree with Veterans United that even in our snow-covered Northwoods, winter is a good time to buy real estate.
In addition to the reasons above, we also expect interest rates to rise over the next 12 months. Recently we have watched rates dip some after decisions to taper the QE were put off. When the easing begins to slow, we are going to see rates jump again and projections are calling for rates to be a full percent higher by this time next year. As the rates climb, it makes a huge impact on a buyer's cost.
Contact your Realtor at Eliason Realty soon to discuss your options, work on getting pre-approved with a local lender because now is the time to take action!
Eliason Realty of the North LLC
The Wisconsin Realtor Association has published their monthly housing sales statistics report and figures look strong for our neck of the woods. The number of home sales in Vilas County jumped 57% in August, while the median sales price grew 12%. Oneida County during August experienced an increase of 5% in the number of sales transactions, while prices grew by 2%.
When looking at summer 2013 as a whole throughout Vilas County, we see figures normalizing with median price at a 2% decrease this summer over 2012, and the number of transactions growing by 22% during the summer of 2013. The steady growth in number of transactions continues to signal consumer confidence. Median prices have bounced around some, but the trends indicate a stabilization and are paving the way toward modest growth.
Contact one of our Eliason Realty sales associates
for real estate sales trends within your local community.
Wisconsin Realtors Association
Press Release and Report
MADISON, Wis. –Wisconsin existing home sales jumped 9.2 percent in April 2013 compared to April 2012, representing 22 straight months of positive sales growth in the state. Median prices climbed by a solid margin, growing 7.8 percent over the past year to $138,000, according to the most recent statistical report released by the WRA.
For more of the official press release, click here.
In our local market, the small smaple size can lead to some skewed figures. We saw April slow in Vilas County but jump ahead in Oneida County.County
We believe the cold and snow were major contributors to the soft sales during April. Last year we had an early ice-out and nicer temperatures, but this year we were still snowshoeing!
... sings Bob Dylan and they certainly are in the real estate market. As early as 2010, we predicted that around the spring of 2012 we would be seeing a turn-around in the real estate market. Last Spring, in our newsletter, we noted that volume was starting to improve but prices were actually still going down. We also stated, "For the first time in 5 years, I am saying, we have hit the bottom and we are starting the recovery." As you can see from the national trends in the graphs below, the inventory of homes for sale has fallen significantly over the past two years. You can also see, nationally, the prices have finally started coming back. Monthly Inventory of Homes for Sale 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 NAt 17013 Eliason Realty has been seeing similar trends. Eliason Realty saw a 60% increase in sales volume in 2012 over 2011. That is compared with a 27% increase for the entire MLS. We have also seen a significant decrease in our volume of listings. In fact, based on the early 2013 indications, we are going to be short on the inventory needed to meet the demand that appears to be on the horizon for the rest of the year. With that in mind, the Northwoods could be entering the price recovery we have been waiting for. (You will see from the graphs on page 2 that although volume has begun to spike, prices simply level off.) We typically don't want to put too much weight on one month, but historically slow January was anything but. According to the \X/RA, sales in Wisconsin were up 18.3% over January 2012 and median home prices increased 3.4% over that same period. If you have been thinking of selling your property, but thought the market was not strong enough yet, you may very well want to consider taking advantage of the current trend.
Substantial housing gains were achieved in Vilas and Oneida Counties during 2012. We experienced greater sales volume than anytime in the last five years with number of homes sold reaching or exceeding the peak 2006-07 unit sales figures.
The median sales price for a home has stayed relatively flat in Vilas County over the last 5 years, while Oneida County has fluctuated and grown some over the last 5 years. Neither county has reached the high median sales price we experienced in 2005, 2006 and 2007. Median sales price reflects the price range where most sales activity is occuring, where buyers show confidence and ability to purchase.Oneida County Housing Statistics - thru 2012
Vilas County Housing Statistics thru 2012
Housing: Year End Reports Reveal Market Coming Back by THE KCM CREW on JANUARY 2, 2013 · 0 COMMENTS Every year-end housing report revealed that the real estate market is recovering quite nicely. Here is a quick synopsis of each: Existing Home Sales Report Total existing-home sales rose 5.9 percent in November over last month Sales are 14.5 percent higher than November 2011 Sales are at the highest level since November 2009 The national median existing-home price was $180,600 in November, up 10.1 percent from November 2011 Total housing inventory at the end of November fell to a 4.8-month supply; it was 5.3 months in October, and is the lowest housing supply since September of 2005 when it was 4.6 months Pending Sales Report Pending home sales increased in November for the third straight month and reached the highest level in two-and-a-half years The index is at the highest level since April 2010 when buyers were rushing to beat the deadline for the home buyer tax credit With the exception of several months affected by tax stimulus, the last time there was a higher reading was in February 2007 On a year-over-year basis, pending home sales have risen for 19 consecutive months New Home Sales Report Sales of new homes rose 4.4% in November to a two-and-a-half-year high This is the highest level since April 2010, when a temporary tax credit boosted demand. Sales are now 15.3% higher compared to one year ago Case Shiller Home Price Index Home prices rose 4.3% in the 12 months ending in October In nineteen of the 20 cities covered, annual returns in October were higher than September
Every year-end housing report revealed that the real estate market is recovering quite nicely. Here is a quick synopsis of each:
Existing Home Sales Report Total existing-home sales rose 5.9 percent in November over last month Sales are 14.5 percent higherthan November 2011 Sales are at the highest level since November 2009 The national median existing-home price was $180,600 in November, up 10.1 percent from November 2011 Total housing inventory at the end of November fell to a 4.8-month supply; it was 5.3 months in October, and is the lowest housing supply since September of 2005 when it was 4.6 months Pending Sales Report Pending home sales increased in November for the third straight month and reached the highest level in two-and-a-half years The index is at the highest level since April 2010 when buyers were rushing to beat the deadline for the home buyer tax credit With the exception of several months affected by tax stimulus, the last time there was a higher reading was in February 2007 On a year-over-year basis, pending home sales have risen for 19 consecutive months New Home Sales Report Sales of new homes rose 4.4% in November to a two-and-a-half-year high This is the highest level since April 2010, when a temporary tax credit boosted demand.
NEWS RELEASES Pending Home Sales Rise in October Media Contact: Walter Molony / 202-383-1177 / Email
Pending Home Sales Rise in October
Media Contact: Walter Molony / 202-383-1177
WASHINGTON (November 29, 2012) - Pending home sales rose strongly in October with mixed regional results, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, increased 5.2 percent to 104.8 in October from an upwardly revised 99.6 in September and is 13.2 percent above October 2011 when it was 92.6. The data reflect contracts but not closings.
Lawrence Yun , NAR chief economist, said buyers are responding to favorable market conditions. "We've had very good housing affordability conditions for quite some time, but we're seeing more impact now from steady job creation, and rising consumer confidence about home buying now that home prices have clearly turned positive."
Outside of a few spikes during the tax credit period, pending home sales are at the highest level since March 2007 when the index also reached 104.8. On a year-over-year basis, pending home sales have risen for 18 consecutive months.
Yun noted there are clear regional patterns. "Contract activity surged in the Midwest and is showing very healthy gains in the South, but was down slightly in both the Northeast and West," he said.
"The Northeast saw some impact from Hurricane Sandy, but limited inventory in the West is keeping a lid on the market. All regions are up from a year ago, with double-digit gains in every region but the West," Yun said.
The PHSI in the Northeast slipped 0.1 percent to 79.2 in October but is 13.3 percent above a year ago. In the Midwest the index jumped 15.6 percent to 104.4 in October and is 20.0 percent above October 2011.
The 2012 figures show the percent change in equalized valuation Vilas County experienced between the 2010 and 2011 real estate valuations. The equalized value of residential real estate in Vilas County dropped 5% last year (based on the comparison of equalized values as of Jan 1, 2011 and Jan 1, 2012), the largest decline in recent history.
The first half of 2012 has included heavier demand for real estate in our area (and many areas across the country), suggesting that we may be bouncing around at the bottom. As real estate sales volume grows, helping prices to stabilize.
See the August 15, 2012 Press Release by the Wisconsin Department of Revenue. http://www.revenue.wi.gov/news/20120815_01.pdf
Eliason Realty of the North, Inc.
Eagle River, St Germain, Vilas County, WI -- www.EliasonRealty.com